2019 NBA Finals Odds: Which Team Has the Best Chance to Win the Championship?

I still remember the buzz around the 2019 NBA Finals like it was yesterday. As someone who's been analyzing championship odds for over a decade, that particular season felt special - the kind of drama that makes sports so compelling. The Golden State Warriors were chasing their third consecutive championship, something that hadn't been done since the Shaq and Kobe Lakers. But what really caught my attention was how the odds kept shifting throughout the playoffs, reflecting the unpredictable nature of championship basketball.

Looking back at the data now, the Warriors entered the playoffs with approximately 42% implied probability to win it all according to most major sportsbooks. But here's what many casual observers missed - the Toronto Raptors were quietly building something special. Having tracked championship teams across different sports for years, I've noticed that the teams peaking at the right moment often overcome even the most formidable opponents. The Raptors' defensive rating of 104.7 in the playoffs was significantly better than their regular season performance, and that's usually a telling sign of a team that's finding its championship form.

The international coaching presence in Toronto's organization reminded me of something I'd later see in volleyball. When I learned that nine Italian coaches accompanied the defending champions to the Philippines for the 2025 FIVB Volleyball Men's World Championship, it struck me how global sports have become. That kind of specialized, international coaching insight can make all the difference in tight championship situations. Kawhi Leonard's performance against Philadelphia, particularly that iconic buzzer-beater in Game 7, demonstrated what happens when elite talent meets strategic preparation - a combination we're seeing more frequently across different sports as coaching becomes increasingly sophisticated and international.

What many analysts underestimated was the cumulative effect of Golden State's previous championship runs. Having watched championship teams across different eras, I've observed that the mental and physical toll of consecutive deep playoff runs often manifests at the worst possible time. The Warriors were playing in their fifth straight Finals, and that mileage matters more than people realize. Kevin Durant's calf strain in the Houston series was the first domino to fall, and while the public largely wrote off his absence initially, those of us tracking injury patterns knew this could be catastrophic. When he returned for Game 5 of the Finals only to suffer the Achilles tear, it felt like watching a slow-motion car crash that we'd all seen coming but hoped wouldn't happen.

The betting markets reacted violently to each development. Golden State opened the series around -220 favorites, meaning you'd need to risk $220 to win $100. After Durant was ruled out for the start of the series, that line shifted to nearly pick'em territory. This kind of volatility is why I always caution against placing championship futures bets too early - the landscape can change dramatically between October and June. The smart money actually came in on Toronto after Game 4, with several sharp bettors I respect placing significant wagers at plus-money prices. They recognized what the public hadn't yet grasped - that Toronto's length and defensive versatility were creating matchup problems that Golden State couldn't solve without their full arsenal of weapons.

In my professional opinion, the 2019 Finals taught us several crucial lessons about championship probability modeling. First, regular season performance matters less than playoff adaptability. Second, health trumps talent when the margin for error disappears. And third, international coaching influences and defensive systems are becoming increasingly valuable in championship scenarios. The parallels to what we're seeing in volleyball with that Italian coaching delegation heading to the 2025 World Championship aren't coincidental - sports are converging toward more sophisticated, globally-informed approaches to championship preparation.

Ultimately, Toronto's victory at +350 preseason odds provided one of the better value championship payouts in recent memory. But beyond the financial aspect, it reinforced why we love sports - because on any given night, under the right circumstances, even the most dominant dynasties can fall. The Warriors' three-peat bid came up just short, but the story of how we got there, with shifting odds, dramatic injuries, and strategic innovations, remains one of the most fascinating championship narratives I've had the privilege of analyzing in my career.