Who Will Win the 2024 NBA DPOY Award? Top Contenders and Predictions
As I sit here watching Rudy Gobert anchor the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense, I can't help but reflect on how much the Defensive Player of the Year conversation has evolved over the years. The 2024 DPOY race feels particularly special because we're witnessing multiple generational defenders hitting their absolute peaks simultaneously. Having covered the NBA for over a decade, I've developed a keen eye for what separates good defenders from truly transformative ones, and this season has given us several players who fit the latter description.
The conversation absolutely begins with Rudy Gobert, and frankly, I believe he's the frontrunner right now. The Timberwolves boast the league's best defensive rating at 108.3, and Gobert is the undeniable engine of that system. His defensive box plus-minus of +4.2 leads all qualified players, and Minnesota allows 8.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. What often gets overlooked is how he's improved his perimeter defense this season – he's switching onto guards more effectively than I've ever seen him do before. The narrative around Gobert has shifted from "regular season defender" to "defensive anchor of a legitimate contender," and that matters tremendously for voter perception.
But then you have to consider Victor Wembanyama, who's doing things defensively that I've literally never witnessed in my lifetime. The rookie is averaging an absurd 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals per game while anchoring a Spurs defense that would be historically bad without him. San Antonio's defensive rating improves by 12.1 points when he's on the court – that's not just valuable, that's transformative. I watched him record a triple-double with blocks recently, and he genuinely affects more shots than he actually blocks because opponents are terrified to challenge him at the rim. The main argument against Wembanyama is team success – the Spurs are terrible – but his individual impact is so historically significant that voters might not be able to ignore him.
Bam Adebayo presents perhaps the most compelling case outside of those two. The Heat's defensive system is built around his unique versatility, and Miami ranks third in defensive efficiency despite lacking another elite defender. Adebayo's ability to guard all five positions effectively makes him the league's most switchable big man, and he's averaging 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. What impresses me most is how he elevates his defense in clutch moments – I've counted at least four games this season where his defensive stops directly secured Miami victories. His leadership and communication on that end are unparalleled; you can see him directing traffic and putting teammates in the right positions constantly.
Now, let me throw a dark horse into the mix – Herb Jones. The Pelicans' defensive stopper doesn't have the flashy stats of the big men, but his perimeter defense is absolutely elite. He's holding opponents to 41.2% shooting when he's the primary defender, and his defensive versatility allows New Orleans to deploy multiple defensive schemes effectively. Having watched him completely shut down stars like Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season, I can attest to his game-changing impact. The advanced metrics love him too – he ranks in the 95th percentile for defensive estimated plus-minus. If voters look beyond traditional big man stats, Jones could surprise people.
What makes this race particularly fascinating to me is how it reflects the evolution of NBA defense. We have Gobert representing the traditional rim-protecting anchor, Wembanyama showing what a futuristic defensive weapon looks like, Adebayo embodying switch-everything versatility, and Jones representing the lockdown perimeter defender. The league has never been more diverse in defensive excellence.
My prediction? I'm leaning toward Gobert narrowly edging out Wembanyama. The narrative of him transforming Minnesota's defense combined with their team success will likely resonate with voters. Gobert's defensive win shares of 4.1 lead the league, and Minnesota's defensive rating with him on the court would rank as the best in modern NBA history over a full season. Wembanyama will get votes and might even finish second, but voter fatigue with giving awards to players on losing teams will probably cost him. Adebayo will round out the top three in what should be one of the closest DPOY votes in recent memory.
Ultimately, what strikes me about all these contenders is their shared mentality. When Rudy Gobert said "I want a championship," he wasn't just talking about offensive glory – he understands that elite defense is what separates good teams from champions. That same championship-level defensive intensity is visible in Adebayo's crunch-time stops, Wembanyama's relentless rim protection, and Jones' determination to shut down the league's best scorers. This award isn't just about individual excellence – it's about understanding how defense translates to winning basketball, and this year's contenders exemplify that connection better than any group I've seen in years.
